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which is a conservative estimate, "the statement is cautious, leaving room, and it is justifiable. Hung Chen quick accusations groundless.Mortality data difficult period of three years for each county in Sichuan Province (city,Giuseppe Zanotti Sneakers, district) recorded in local history, grossly exaggerated the truth of death in these areas.Hung Chen quick article discusses the changes in the population of Sichuan Province. About Sichuan Province three difficult years of the existence of two sets of population mortality statistics huge difference in Table 1.The first set of data tables from the National Bureau of Population Statistics Division.
because there is no verification of the data of the sample survey of the two,tiffany orecchini, on the use of other methods of false negative rate of death during this period were cautious estimates: "We Death false negative rate is tentatively scheduled for the period 1954-1958 of 12%, which is a conservative estimate of the death of underreporting ... if we continue to adjust the rate of 12% for the period up (we tend to do),braccialetto tiffany, then 1959-1961 mortality rate continued to fall during the period necessary. "Hung Chen quick to seize this sentence" Death is tentatively scheduled for the false negative rate of 12%,nike air max, "said the data" totally unfounded. " In fact, the above results in 1953 and 1957 showed that the two sampling rate of underreporting deaths during this period of 16% -18%, the full description of the "death of the false negative rate we tentatively scheduled for the period 1954-1958 12%.
the natural increase of the population of the country is 12.04 million,hollister outlet, however,barbour pas cher, the total population increased by only 8.25 million, 3.79 million less." This phenomenon can just use what we call the two basic reasons explained. Commenting on the report of the Ministry of Public cause of this decrease is attributable to say "grass-roots units in the past mainly because some overstatement of the population." This goes in line with what we call the first basic reasons.MPS report cited a number of examples, including examples of Huangpi County: "Huangpi County, Hubei Province,tiffany milano, when the 1953 census, there is 719,barbour,000 people, 819,abercrombie pas chere,000 people reported as magistrate indicate, overstatement 100 000, to 1960 only Isolated correct "(Hung Chen fast in the article also cites this example). Huangpi County in 1960 to clean up the 100,000 false population, resulting in a one-time anomaly county demographic data reduction of 10 million people. But the cause of this decrease is not a cause of abnormal fast Hung Chen said, "concealed deaths caused by",louboutin homme pas cher, but in 1953 the county reported more than 10 million people, which is precisely what we call the first part of the basic reasons . This example is our view that provides good evidence,hollister abercrombie, strongly refuted erroneous views Hung Chen fast. We feel that in reading this part of the article Hung Chen quick retort when he was not in us.
This conclusion overthrew the popular three decades old "death underreporting theory" (ie, abnormal demographic changes caused by the death of omission). Get out of our Hung Chen has been refuted "death underreporting theory" (he added a "born overstatement theory") out as the reason. But he did not do any of his argument argumentation,veste barbour homme, nor for us to make any rebuttal argument process. Hung Chen a lot faster in the article quoted in November 1963 to the Central Ministry of Public Security,doudoune parajumpers, the State Department report,giubbotti woolrich, the contents of an attempt to illustrate his point. But it is precisely this report strongly supports our view correctly, rejected the erroneous views Hung Chen fast. Our basic point is: 1960 to 1964 to reduce the number of exceptions reason why China's population, a basic reason is that our country in 1959,tn air max 2014 pas cher, before there is a serious overstatement, false household phenomenon, most of them reported that the false population in 1960-1964 inventory write-off is out and household; another fundamental reason is that our country during this period to carry out a large-scale campaign to streamline the town's population,tiffany, resulting in a large number of false negative population migration. The basic idea is fast Hung Chen: China's population during this period to reduce the number of exceptions is "concealed deaths caused."Let us look at the 1963 report of the Ministry of Public Hung Chen quoted fast. The report said,Giuseppe Zanotti Pas Cher, "According to statistics in the first half.
Ministry of Public Security Bureau prepared three "People's Republic of China compile demographic information (1949-1985)".
but help us to refute himself.Hung Chen believe that the basic reason for our rapid population decrease during this period a number of exceptions by the "concealed deaths caused by" Ministry of Public Security of the report but did not mention this. Hung Chen fast I had lamented in the article said: "The Ministry of Public Security in the report did not mention," he said of the reason.We believe that from the first national census in 1953 to 1958 period,air max pas cher pour femme, there is a certain degree of underreporting phenomenon of death, death underreporting total population of about 750 million people. Hung Chen quick to say that our research results "totally unfounded."We published in "China Social Sciences internal document" (2013 No. 4) has been clearly stated in the article: our country in 1953 and 1957 has conducted two sample survey based on a sample survey of the results of these two can be estimated 1953 and 1957 for the death of the false negative rate were 17.65% and 16.34%. It is on this basis we estimate the death underreporting of population during this period.When we wrote was published in the article "Marxism research" on.
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发表于 2014-12-14 04:32:40
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